gallup poll reveals statistical tie for palin, romney, huckabee
Today’s Gallup poll for likely 2012 GOP presidential candidates reveals a close race between Governors Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin. The poll was conducted with Republicans and “Republican-leaning” Independent voters and asked which candidate the voter would be “most likely” to support.
It’s interesting to note the shift that has occurred in recent months, as indicated in the chart below:
You will see that Huckabee’s numbers have increased 4% since the fall of 2010, perhaps due to his recently released book, Simple Government: Twelve Things We Really Need From Washington; while Mitt Romney’s numbers have decreased by a similar amount, 3%, in that same time period. By contrast, Governor Palin’s numbers have maintained a steady trend since last September - a remarkable feat considering the constant barrage of negative press directed her way. The latest, of course, being the leaked manuscript by a former aide (blogger Stacy Drake has a straight-forward post on this matter at Big Government).
Though daily and weekly polls are nothing to hang one’s proverbial hat on, reviewing the trends revealed in these statistics can be useful for understanding the mood of the average voter. Poll numbers can certainly be illustrative in pointing out preferred candidates and those with the highest name-recognition. However, these numbers are also instructive in revealing falsehoods (or wishful thinking) that are simply not the reality of the situation.
In the case of Governor Sarah Palin, the prevailing meme in mainstream press is that she is polarizing, disliked, and disrespected. This week’s Gallup poll, however, shows a different trend. Despite the efforts of those who would banish her from the political scene, Governor Palin remains a strong, steady presence - she manages to persevere in the face of extraordinary odds.
Regardless of who enters the race to become the GOP presidential candidate in 2012, the numbers released by Gallup today should be a reminder that this election will not be a foregone conclusion - in the primary or the general election.
Voters’ opinions are fickle and the majority of Americans don’t pay much attention to politics outside of a few weeks before a major election. The most important thing for conservatives to do between now and November 2012 is to remain strong and steady, continuing to persevere through the blitz that is sure to come from the other side.
- tdc
That should speak a certain amount of volume. I can’t endorse a candidate in that race.
Mitt Romney on the NY-23 race
*Um, really? That’s all you got…?
